Market Outlook & Buying Strategy
Executive Summary
Drewry’s World Container Index rose 8% w/w to US$1,959/FEU (Nov 6), the fourth consecutive weekly gain, signaling firmer spot conditions into mid-November. At APEC 2025 in Gyeongju (Oct 31–Nov 1), the Trump–Xi meeting conveyed limited tariff relief and supply-chain assurances, lowering near-term tail-risk. With freight firming while U.S. manufacturing remains mixed, we see a near-term buy window for West Coast 40HC CW.
I. Recommendation
Proceed with immediate procurement of 40HC CW in Los Angeles/Long Beach for best landed cost and liquidity. Add Oakland and Seattle selectively where delivery geography or lead-time savings justify local pickup. Maintain optionality for key inland hubs only when linehaul math nets out.
II. Market Summary
- Freight: Drewry WCI at US$1,959/FEU (+8% w/w) with Shanghai–LA up ~9% to ~US$2,647 on early-Nov GRIs. (Source: Drewry weekly assessment, Nov 6.)
- Macro (U.S.): ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (Oct)—contracting, but goods demand still supports steady import programs.
- Geopolitics: APEC Trump–Xi readouts point to modest tariff easing and supply-chain cooperation signals, reducing shock probability though structural frictions persist.
III. Analytical Insights
- Freight firmness → SOC value support. Rising/firm spot baselines increase COC costs; owning SOC (40HC CW) hedges volatility and supports used-box floors on the West Coast first.
- APEC reduces tail-risk, extends planning horizon. Signals around tariff relief and supply-chain assurance trim the “geo-premium” previously embedded in asset pricing; disciplined, steady procurement beats delay tactics.
- Macro mix argues for price discipline, not chase. With ISM in contraction, we do not assume runaway upside: focus on the cheapest coastal inventory now and add selectively by delivery ZIP.
IV. Outlook & Recommendation (Next 4–6 Weeks)
- Freight indices (WCI/FBX): Bias sideways-to-up into mid-December on year-end intake and pre-LNY positioning; volatility bands wider than normal.
- Price view by type: 40HC CW (WC) stable → firm with potential +US$50–150 if spot strength holds; 20GP CW flat to slightly firmer; One-Trip 40HC premiums sticky for enterprise end-users.
- Action plan: Lock LAX/LB 40HC CW blocks now; add OAK/SEA where landed-cost wins. Re-price after next WCI/FBX prints and U.S. CPI.
Final Recommendation
Execute this week in LAX/LB (40HC CW), with OAK/SEA as secondary pick-up points as delivery geography requires. Freight firmness and improved policy tone create a short-window buy before potential December tightening.
Notes & Sources (past 7 days)
Drewry WCI (Nov 6, 2025): $1,959/FEU, +8% w/w, fourth consecutive weekly increase. Drewry+1
Freightos FBX (global composite): ~$2,190 (early Nov). Freightos+1
ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct 2025): 48.7 (contraction). Institute for Supply Management
APEC Gyeongju (Oct 31–Nov 1): Trump–Xi outcomes on tariffs & supply chains. The Washington Post
* Weekly Inventory as of November 9, 2025 *
UNITED STATES
CANADA
SOUTH AMERICA
* Weekly Inventory as of November 9, 2025
