MUWON USA / MARKET INSIGHTS
Diesel Costs and the North American Container Market: Outlook Through December 2026
Elevated fuel costs, seasonal changes in cargo flows, and the contract and location effects behind uneven container pricing.
This report separates diesel prices, container transport charges and equipment resale values. Published observations and institutional forecasts are distinguished from conditional economic interpretation. The core quantitative evidence is U.S.-based; it is not a continent-wide asset-price index or a forecast of ocean freight rates.
1. The diesel-price change so far
Observed data The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports a national monthly diesel average of $3.523 per gallon in January and $5.462 in August, a calculated increase of 55.04%. The trajectory was not continuously upward: prices rose sharply in March and April, declined in June and July, and rebounded in August. [1]
| 2026 month | USD / gal | Month-on-month | Versus January |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | $3.523 | -2.54% | Baseline |
| Feb | $3.722 | +5.65% | +5.65% |
| Mar | $4.921 | +32.21% | +39.68% |
| Apr | $5.501 | +11.79% | +56.15% |
| May | $5.600 | +1.80% | +58.96% |
| Jun | $5.024 | -10.29% | +42.61% |
| Jul | $4.955 | -1.37% | +40.65% |
| Aug | $5.462 | +10.23% | +55.04% |
Month-on-month change = (current month / previous month - 1) x 100. January compares with December 2025 ($3.615). The January-based column uses January's average, not the January 1 pump price. Calculations use the published three-decimal inputs. [1]
The latest EIA observation available at the analysis cut-off is $5.967 for the week labeled September 7, released September 9. That is 69.37% above January's average, but it is not a September monthly average. [2]
The New Jersey and New York reference points
| Geography | September 9 diesel | Observation type |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. national | $5.9424 | AAA daily retail average |
| New Jersey state | $5.9025 | AAA daily retail average |
| New York state | $5.9508 | AAA daily retail average |
The table uses AAA's September 9 daily observations for all three areas. New Jersey and New York are statewide averages. The snapshot establishes a price level, not a state-specific forecast or a monthly inflation rate. No December NJ or NY price is inferred by holding today's state-national spread constant. [6][7][8]
2. The official diesel outlook reaches year-end, but not at daily precision
Published forecast EIA's September Short-Term Energy Outlook puts U.S. retail diesel at an average of $5.55 per gallon in the fourth quarter. Its corresponding third-quarter estimate is $5.34. The calculated quarter-to-quarter increase is 3.93%; Q4 would be 50.0% above the published Q4 2025 average of $3.70. These comparisons concern quarters, not individual months. [3]
| 2026 quarter | USD / gal | Data status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 (Jan-Mar) | $4.05 | Historical |
| Q2 (Apr-Jun) | $5.37 | Historical |
| Q3 (Jul-Sep) | $5.34 | Estimate / forecast |
| Q4 (Oct-Dec) | $5.55 | Forecast |
A Q4 average of $5.55 does not imply that October, November and December each average $5.55, or that the pump price on December 31 will be $5.55. It can also coexist with a single early-September weekly reading above that level. The report's verified numerical forecast is therefore a quarterly benchmark, not a daily path. [2][3]
EIA's model inputs were finalized on September 3, before the September 7 weekly observation. The forecast is a dated assessment, not a model incorporating every subsequent price change. EIA's published Q4 Brent forecast is $90.66 per barrel. [3][5]
Why a lower crude price would not guarantee an immediate diesel-price reversal
EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories to remain below the 2021-2025 seasonal low through year-end. Autumn refinery maintenance and harvest demand add pressure. Its outlook keeps diesel crack spreads above $2 per gallon from August through November, followed by a decline beginning in December under improved supply-flow assumptions. A crack spread is a fuel-versus-crude price differential, not a retail diesel price or a refinery's net profit. [4][13]
Interpretation This supports a forecast of continued fuel-cost pressure into late autumn, with conditional easing in December rather than a mechanically rising straight line. Slower restoration of Middle East supply flows would weaken the easing case. Retail diesel also reflects refining, distribution and tax components, so crude and diesel need not change in equal percentages. [4][13]
3. Container freight flows show seasonal moderation, not a uniform contraction
Published forecast NRF and Hackett Associates project the following import volumes at the U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker. All four months remain forecasts as of September 9. [9]
| 2026 month | Million TEU | Year-on-year | Data status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep | 2.31 | +9.6% | Forecast |
| Oct | 2.11 | +1.7% | Forecast |
| Nov | 2.00 | -0.9% | Forecast |
| Dec | 2.03 | +1.1% | Forecast |
December is approximately 12.1% below September on this forecast, but 1.1% above December 2025. The distinction matters: a post-peak decline within the year is not the same as a year-on-year collapse. It also does not demonstrate that higher diesel caused lower imports. [9]
Observed data U.S. railroads averaged nearly 297,000 intermodal containers and trailers per week in August, up 4.4% year-on-year, according to the Association of American Railroads. AAR identifies higher trucking costs among several factors supporting rail. This is an industry association's explanation, not a measured diesel-only causal effect. [10]
The three-country CPKC network reported second-quarter intermodal carloads of 454,700, down approximately 1% year-on-year. That company-specific quarter and AAR's later U.S. monthly measure cover different periods and populations. Together they caution against treating all North American corridors as one synchronized market. [12]
Interpretation Cargo demand can remain substantial while easing after its seasonal peak. More expensive road transport may improve rail's relative position on suitable routes, but this does not establish the amount of modal shift, the direction of all-in freight rates, or the supply of used containers released for sale.
4. Equipment values: a different market from fuel and freight
Company evidence Triton's global fleet averaged 98.0% utilization in Q2 2026, versus 97.1% in Q1. The same filing reports lower average used dry-container sale prices than in Q2 2025. These are different comparisons: utilization is quarter-on-quarter; sale prices are year-on-year. Utilization excludes new units not yet leased and off-hire units designated for sale. The figures describe one global company, not a North American equipment-price index. [11]
Interpretation Higher operating utilization does not establish higher resale values. Nor is cargo throughput a count of containers released for sale. Fleet employment, disposal decisions and local sale inventory are separate measures. These observations caution against a one-for-one fuel-to-equipment relationship; they do not statistically establish permanent market decoupling or estimate a price elasticity.
New equipment is a comparison point, not a guaranteed price floor
Conditional economic interpretation Where new or one-trip containers are available in the same market and are acceptable substitutes, their delivered price can limit what a buyer is willing to pay for used equipment. That does not create an automatic minimum resale value. Used prices could fall further if local disposal supply exceeds demand, even with an unchanged new-container quotation.
A factory quotation and a North American one-trip depot quotation are not comparable until size, specification, condition, location, availability, currency and included costs are aligned. This report establishes no verified factory-price series or numerical new-to-used threshold. No unsupported per-container price is used to predict a floor, ceiling or December resale target.
5. Cost absorption, contract terms and bargaining power
The direct fuel component
Illustrative calculation The example assumes one container movement, 6 miles per gallon, and total truck mileage including empty running. These are assumptions, not a measured industry-average duty cycle. The baseline is January's EIA monthly average of $3.523 per gallon. [1]
| Reference diesel price | 200 total miles | 600 total miles |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 7 weekly: $5.967 | $81.47 | $244.40 |
| EIA Q4 average forecast: $5.55 | $67.57 | $202.70 |
The calculations use observed or forecast EIA prices as labeled; the second row is conditional on the forecast price. The rows are not a statistical range. A 6-mpg mileage calculation does not separately model idling, queues or varying loads. [1][2][3]
Fuel expenditure is not the freight invoice. Labor, tolls, equipment, waiting time and carrier margin are excluded. A fuel increment cannot be added a second time when it is already included in the quoted freight charge. EIA publishes the reference index but does not determine carrier fuel surcharges. [14]
Who initially bears a higher transport charge?
Contract-based interpretation A wholesaler does not necessarily bear the truck's fuel increase directly. The contractual payer, the carrier's rate terms and any subsequent price negotiation determine where the cost appears. The following table describes consequences under explicit assumptions; it is not a survey of market shares or actual pass-through rates.
| Explicit assumption | Initial exposure | Possible equipment-market effect |
|---|---|---|
| Fixed delivered selling price; seller pays an adjustable carrier charge | When the carrier's charge increases, the seller's transaction contribution decreases, all else unchanged. | Margin compression can occur without any increase in the equipment's selling price. A fixed carrier charge would change the initial allocation of exposure. |
| Buyer collects from the depot and pays the carrier | The buyer bears a carrier-price increase directly; the equipment seller does not automatically incur that freight cost. | A constrained total purchase budget may lead to lower equipment bids. Whether the seller concedes depends on competing supply and other buyers. |
| Separately indexed fuel adjustment | The agreed index, baseline, calculation and timing allocate the adjustment. | Pass-through may be partial or delayed. A surcharge formula does not establish a change in container asset value. |
This is an accounting identity, not a profit forecast. Holding acquisition cost and other terms constant, unrecovered seller-borne transport costs reduce contribution. Overhead, financing and taxes are outside this simplified measure. It explains possible margin pressure without asserting that every dealer is experiencing it.
Outside options can change who absorbs the cost
Game-theory models distinguish a transaction's total surplus from how parties divide it; alternative counterparties, relative scarcity and bargaining rules affect the outcome. This report uses those ideas qualitatively, without estimating a Nash equilibrium or a negotiated price. [15]
Conditional market interpretation If comparable local inventory is abundant, buyers may have credible alternatives and sellers may be unable to recover an added transport cost. If substitutes are distant, higher hauling costs may instead weaken the buyer's alternative and support the relative value of nearby inventory. A seller's carrying costs and a buyer's deadline can further alter the cost of waiting. These mechanisms can work in either direction; current bargaining strengths and market-wide cost pass-through are not measured here.
6. Regional spreads and the economics of repositioning
Equipment prices and depot charges are different variables
Triton's filing distinguishes container leasing revenue from location-related pick-up/drop-off fees and reimbursable repair and handling costs. These are separate revenue categories, not a depot resale-price quotation. This distinction also matters when interpreting local equipment offers. [11]
| Item | Meaning in this report | Comparison limitation |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-depot equipment price | The stated purchase price for the container at the named depot. | The quotation must identify which charges are already included; the label alone does not resolve cost allocation. |
| Pick-up, drop-off and handling charges | Separately specified charges for release, acceptance or physical handling. | They are not interchangeable with the equipment price. No fee trend is inferred from an unlabeled quotation. |
| Regional equipment spread | The price difference for comparable equipment in two locations on a consistent basis. | An apparent spread can reflect condition, availability or quotation-versus-transaction differences instead of geography. |
| Net relocation cost | Incremental movement and associated costs, less any explicitly available relocation credit. | A credit is an offset, not an equipment-price increase; an assumed credit is not treated as confirmed revenue. |
The relevant threshold is net value, not the visible price spread
Analytical identity For an already-owned container, the incremental economic value of moving it can be expressed as:
Proceeds are net of selling charges at each location, but before relocation costs. The final term includes movement, extra handling, storage, inspection or repair, and other incremental obligations, less confirmed offsets. Timing and uncertainty must be treated consistently; a financing cost already reflected in discounting is not counted again. The common historical acquisition cost cancels when comparing these two disposal alternatives, although it still affects total realized profit.
Holding the other terms fixed, rising diesel can increase the movement-cost term and reduce the incremental value of relocation. If that value is non-positive, a higher destination price alone does not establish an economic benefit from moving. Inventory can consequently remain in a lower-priced origin market while a destination premium persists. This is a conditional mechanism, not evidence of a documented shortage or accumulation in any particular city.
A cargo-assisted move using a shipper-owned container (SOC), or a relocation credit, can change the calculation only where a workable movement and its obligations are actually specified. Additional handlings, time, return conditions and condition risk can offset the apparent saving. No increase in SOC use, guaranteed subsidy or automatic backhaul saving is assumed in this outlook.
What depot-level evidence is still missing?
The cited public series do not provide a matched, dated dataset of depot transaction prices, sale-release quantities, gate-out restrictions and pick-up charges for Chicago, Los Angeles or other North American locations. Accordingly, the report does not assign an observed regional premium or claim that particular depots are currently congested or short of sale inventory.
A defensible measured spread would require comparable size and condition, the same observation window, currency, included fees, release availability and a clear distinction between asking prices and completed transactions. Without those observations, depot constraints remain explanatory variables rather than measured year-end price targets.
7. Outlook from September through December 31
Evidence-based interpretation The table below translates the published fuel and cargo outlooks into conditional market implications. The right-hand column is this report's analysis, not an EIA or NRF container-price forecast. No scenario probabilities or numerical equipment-price changes are assigned.
| Period | Published reference | Potential container-market implication |
|---|---|---|
| September | The latest weekly diesel reading is elevated; imports are forecast to reach the seasonal peak. [2][9] | Transport-cost pressure can coexist with substantial cargo activity. Neither establishes a universal shortage of sale inventory. |
| October | The import forecast is below September; fuel-market tightness persists in EIA's autumn outlook. [4][9] | Less cargo pressure may soften some freight-rate components, while fuel continues to support delivered costs. The net effect is route-specific. |
| November | EIA expects elevated diesel crack spreads through November. [4] | Repositioning cost remains a potential source of regional price separation; it does not by itself establish higher equipment values. |
| December | EIA's crack-spread outlook begins to ease if supply flows improve; its Q4 diesel forecast remains an average for three months. [3][4] | Some fuel-cost relief is plausible, but an exact December 31 diesel price or North American container-price level cannot be established from these inputs. |
Conditions that could change the direction
Prolonged energy-supply disruption: slower normalization than EIA assumes would support a higher diesel-cost outcome. Longer-haul delivered costs would face more pressure. It would still not prove that depot prices rise, because freight demand and equipment supply may offset that pressure. [4][5]
Faster supply recovery or softer cargo demand: fuel pressure could ease sooner, or lower traffic could reduce the non-fuel portion of freight rates. If equipment availability simultaneously expands, resale values could soften. If availability remains constrained, lower fuel expense alone may not remove a local premium. These are conditional economic relationships, not additional published numerical forecasts.
What the North American scope does and does not mean
The U.S. fuel and port series do not measure Canadian or Mexican domestic diesel inflation. CPKC adds evidence from a cross-border network, while Triton provides global equipment context; neither supplies a country-by-country resale-price index. No U.S. percentage is mechanically applied to Canada or Mexico, and no verified December statewide diesel forecast is claimed for New Jersey or New York.
Methodology and forecast limits
Actual prices, published forecasts and author calculations are labeled separately. EIA's monthly and quarterly series are reproduced at their published frequency and precision; quarterly figures are not recomputed from rounded monthly inputs. The verified quarterly forecast is not interpolated into unsupported monthly or daily values. No December 31 spot-price target, statistical confidence interval or North American container-price elasticity is estimated.
The monthly fuel data are from the September 9 release. AAA's September 9 observations were rechecked in the prior-day rows on pages dated September 10. Live source pages can change; the companion data file records the values used. Sources rechecked after the cut-off do not add September 10 market observations to the analysis.
Government data anchor the fuel outlook; association publications describe covered freight activity; company filings illustrate one business rather than the entire market. Tables labeled as contract-based or conditional interpretation are the author's analysis, not additional survey evidence or trading advice.
The bargaining discussion is conceptual, not an estimated Nash equilibrium. The cost and relocation equations are analytical identities under stated definitions; no location-specific prices, gate restrictions, pick-up charge trends, relocation credits or factory-price thresholds have been invented. Different comparison periods in company data are disclosed rather than treated as a common time-series test.
The numerical fuel outlook stops at the published quarterly benchmark. The equipment outlook is conditional and qualitative. No confidence band, probability-weighted scenario or exact year-end equipment price is implied.
Sources and data notes
- EIA - U.S. No. 2 diesel retail prices, monthly historyRelease: September 9, 2026. Actual January-August 2026 values; December 2025 used only for January's monthly change.
- EIA - Weekly retail diesel pricesObservation labeled September 7; released September 9, 2026. U.S. national $5.967/gal; this is not a monthly average.
- EIA - September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, Table 2Official archived report; PDF page 32. Q1-Q2 historical, Q3 estimated/forecast, Q4 forecast. Model inputs finalized September 3.
- EIA - September 2026 STEO: U.S. petroleum products (archived)Archived September 2026 STEO, PDF pages 6-7: distillate inventories, seasonal demand, maintenance and diesel crack spreads. A dated archive replaces the changing live page.
- EIA - September 2026 STEO: assumptions and forecast timeline (archived)Archived September 2026 STEO, PDF pages 3-5: forecast assumptions and September 3 input cut-off. The forecast does not incorporate every later market event.
- AAA - U.S. national retail diesel averagesSeptember 9 snapshot $5.9424/gal verified in the Yesterday Avg. row on the page dated September 10, 2026. Live page changes daily.
- AAA - New Jersey statewide retail diesel averagesSeptember 9 snapshot $5.9025/gal verified in Yesterday Avg. on September 10. Statewide, not Newark or another metro average.
- AAA - New York statewide retail diesel averagesSeptember 9 snapshot $5.9508/gal verified in Yesterday Avg. on September 10. Statewide, not New York City.
- NRF / Hackett Associates - Import Cargo's Peak Season Not Over YetPrimary release September 9, 2026. Global Port Tracker: selected major U.S. ports, not all North American ports. September-December volumes are forecasts.
- Association of American Railroads - September 2026 Rail Industry OverviewPage 1: August U.S. intermodal containers and trailers, nearly 297,000 per week, +4.4% year-on-year. Industry-association interpretation is not a causal estimate.
- Triton International - 2026 second-quarter SEC filingPDF pages 24 and 29: global utilization definition and Q2 2026 versus Q1; used dry-container sale prices versus Q2 2025; location fees and handling categories. Not a North American price index.
- CPKC - 2026 second-quarter results and rail dataSecond-quarter intermodal carloads: 454.7 thousand vs. 459.5 thousand, reported change -1%. Company-specific three-country network, not a continental index.
- EIA - Factors affecting diesel pricesBackground on crude, refining, distribution, marketing, taxes and regional differences. Not a forward container-price model.
- EIA - Diesel fuel surchargesBackground on fuel surcharges. EIA does not set or regulate them; contractual freight charges are distinct from the retail fuel index.
- MIT OpenCourseWare - Game Theory for Strategic Advantage, Lecture 8: BargainingConceptual background on relative scarcity, alternative counterparties and bargaining rules. Not evidence of observed container negotiations or a calibrated equilibrium price.
